The wonder is how someone who has reached such high elected office could be so clueless about the political game’s fundamentals.

Gavin Newsom — twice-elected San Francisco mayor, twice-elected Lieutenant Governor, and twice-elected governor, plus winner of a 2011 recall election — hasn’t the foggiest idea about basic political strategy. His $30 million net worth helped, as did his far-left agenda and well-placed connections, including those to the Pelosi family.

But Newsom, consumed by Trump Derangement Syndrome, remains oblivious to national politics’ first rule: tack to the middle. Reaching the middle ground may be less important in this era of progressive extremism, but nevertheless, the center remains a good launching pad for presidential campaigns.

At his recent speech at Los Angeles’ Japanese American Museum, Newsom — surrounded by radicals including Mayor Karen Bass and U.S. Senators Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla — opened with a paean to diversity, declaring Los Angeles the world’s “most diverse city, in the most diverse country, in the most diverse state.”

His speech may have resonated a decade ago, but the governor appears unaware that California and the nation have moved rightward in recent elections. Newsom’s more serious misjudgment is that he missed an opportunity to reach Independents and undecided voters. Instead, they came away with the valid impression that Newsom is as extreme as they thought… or worse.

The Primary Challenge

Newsom’s first objective is winning the primary, a formidable challenge requiring immediate groundwork. Prevailing in the primary will be tough. Las Vegas bookmakers, who are rarely wrong, have pegged Newsom with only a modest lead over Pete Buttigieg for the 2028 nomination. While that’s three years away, it’s not so far in the future that Newsom can squander valuable time.

If Newsom expects to reach the Oval Office, he must court middle-of-the-road voters. However, he’ll have to defend against hard facts about California’s current state.

California’s Economic Reality

Newsom brags that California has the nation’s largest economy and, having just surpassed Japan, ranks as the world’s fourth largest at $4.1 trillion, behind only the U.S., China, and Germany. But California’s impressive multi-trillion-dollar economy masks significant flaws.

Economic Stagnation: The Legislative Analyst’s Office wrote in its report on California’s financial health: “California’s economy has been in an extended slowdown for the better part of two years, characterized by a soft labor market and weak consumer spending. While this slowdown has been gradual and the severity milder than a recession, recent economic data paints a picture of a sluggish economy. Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half.”

Minimal Labor Force Growth: Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has grown by just 126,100 workers — a mere 0.6% increase. The state’s 5.5% unemployment rate is higher than all but Nevada and has remained stuck at an elevated position for several years. Beacon Economics noted in a recent analysis: “This slower growth is being driven largely by the state’s chronic housing shortage and the retirement of aging workers.”

High Cost of Living: California suffers from high housing prices, gas, and electricity costs that drive people away, making it difficult for many to afford living there. Electricity rates rank among the nation’s highest and are growing faster than in other states due to wildfires and climate change initiatives. According to a USC analysis, California gas prices could rise 75% by the end of 2026 when they will reach $8.

Business Exodus: High taxes and regulations have driven businesses to relocate, with notable examples including Elon Musk’s X and SpaceX and Hilton Hotels. Since 2019, over 200 companies — including Chevron, Hewlett-Packard, Palantir, and Charles Schwab — have left California, pushed out by increasing business burdens, high tax rates, and crippling regulations.

Quality of Life Issues: Traffic, pollution, and long commutes negatively impact daily life and diminish overall quality of life throughout the state.

Housing Crisis: Strict zoning laws and limited supply have created a severe housing shortage that continues to worsen.

Policy Conflicts: Some residents feel the state’s liberal policies don’t align with their values. Recent controversies include lawsuits against California doctors and hospitals for allegedly rushing a 12-year-old into gender transition, Newsom’s plans to use taxpayer dollars to impede U.S. deportation efforts including paying for legal services for illegal and criminal immigrants, and new initiatives to block voter identification requirements.

Nowhere in this dismal record exists a platform from which Newsom could successfully begin a presidential campaign. That won’t stop him from forging ahead, however. With luck, once his presidential dreams are dashed, Newsom’s fate will mirror Kamala Harris’s — out of sight and out of mind.

–

Copyright 2025 Joe Guzzardi, distributed by Cagle Cartoons newspaper syndicate.

Joe Guzzardi is an Institute for Sound Public Policy analyst who has written about immigration for more than 30 years. Contact him at [email protected].