It’s time for the Veepstakes, a cherished American pastime. But at the risk of ruining our current fun – who’s gonna partner up with Kamala Harris? – it’s my sad obligation to point out that rarely, if ever, does the choice of a running mate make a big difference in the balloting.

Granted, it’s possible that the neophyte laughingstock JD Vance could weigh like an anchor on his fascist partner and help drag him down to defeat. But even bad picks don’t necessarily doom a national ticket. Witness deer-in-the-headlights lightweight Dan Quayle, who, despite his dearth of presidential creds, didn’t stop George H. W. Bush from winning big in 1988; in fact, that was the most decisive Republican victory – popular vote plus Electoral College – in the last 36 years.

There’s much chatter right now about tapping a running mate who can “deliver a key state,” notably someone like Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro. But recent history is replete with picks that didn’t work out. In 2012, Mitt Romney chose Paul Ryan in the hopes that Ryan could deliver swing state Wisconsin. Didn’t happen. In 2004, John Kerry chose John Edwards (pre-sex scandal) in the hopes that Edwards could deliver North Carolina. Didn’t happen. In 1992, Bill Clinton chose Al Gore mostly to reinforce the theme of “generational change” (two Baby Boomers on the same ticket) but also because he hoped that Gore could deliver his native Tennessee. Didn’t happen.

Indeed, two political scientists, Kyle Kopko and Christopher Devine, have long studied the “delivery” scenario and concluded: “The vice presidential home-state advantage is, essentially, zero.” Which helps to explain why various successful presidential candidates have ignored that scenario entirely. In 1968, Richard Nixon picked a stiff named Spiro Agnew, from minimally important Maryland, and won the election anyway (while losing Maryland). In 2000, George W. Bush teamed up with Dick Cheney of Wyoming – a red state with minimal electoral votes. In 2008, Barack Obama chose Joe Biden of Delaware – a blue state with minimal electoral votes.

Presidential candidates who advertise “ideological balance” don’t necessarily impress the voters, either. In 1996, Bob Dole was viewed by many conservative Republicans as too wishy-washy, too pragmatically moderate for their tastes. So he balanced the ticket with hard-core conservative Jack Kemp…and got waxed in the November election. In 1988, Mike Dukakis was widely viewed as a Boston lefty, so he balanced his ticket with moderate Senate fixture Lloyd Bentsen of Texas…and got waxed by Bush-Quayle in November.

Nor is there any guarantee that a veep nominee who’s entrusted with delivering a key constituency will succeed in that endeavor. Democrats were stoked in 1984 when they chose Geraldine Ferraro, the first-ever female veep nominee, because they thought she’d galvanize women voters en masse. She and the guy she ran with, Walter Mondale, wound up losing 49 states. And nearly a quarter century later, John McCain thought Sarah Palin could help deliver women voters. I’m still laughing about that one.

So it likely won’t make much difference whether Harris plucks Shapiro or Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly or Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz or Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear or Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, because, post-Veepstakes, it’s the presidential candidates who dominate the news. This election will turn on whether Harris can leverage the Biden administration’s policy achievements to her advantage, and successfully prosecute the case against the convicted felon and his weirdo sidekick. Any of Harris’ white guys will nicely fill the bill and echo her message.

But governing is ultimately what matters most. “Balance” and “deliver” issues aside, her pick should be the person best suited to ascend in an emergency. That’s a great way to highlight the wisdom chasm that separates Harris and Trump. She’ll choose a bona fide grown up, while he chose a callow child.

Perhaps that will be the takeaway message from the 2024 Veepstakes.

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Copyright 2024 Dick Polman, distributed exclusively by Cagle Cartoons newspaper syndicate.

Dick Polman, a veteran national political columnist based in Philadelphia and a Writer in Residence at the University of Pennsylvania, writes at DickPolman.net. Email him at [email protected]